Paid

Markets were a bit weak today with the Dow down 0.4% and the TSX down 0.8%. Nevertheless we had some winners today notably Toll Brothers up 4.6%, Couche-Tard up 2.0%.

In accordance with my note yesterday, I did buy some Canadian Western bank today and added to my Shaw Communications.

Some of our stocks did well today, notably Wells Fargo up 2.8%. Meanwhile Canadian Tire was down 1% to $63.27.

I sent an email to Couche-Tard today asking for a copy of their annual report. I own shares but apparently they did not send out the annual report you send in the card to Computershare, the stock transfer agent and ask for one.

Couche-Tard told me to download it from the web and thanked me for my interest in Couche-Tard. I find that annoying, I had told them I was an owner. But it is typical investor relations people treat share holders as just that, temporary fleeting holders and not really owners.  I try to gently and sometimes not so gently remind these IR types that I am an owner and not some mere total outsider. But maybe I should cut Couche-Tard some slack, after all I am up 50% on this holding (over about 19 months holding period).

A lot of companies no longer send out annual reports and some don’t even produce a bound version. It’s fine to say it is all on the internet but sometimes the documents on the net are not very printer friendly and they are certainly not bound. In the end it helps me, the fewer people that read annual reports the more likely that stock prices deviate from reasonable levels allowing more opportunities to pick up bargains.

Regarding Melcor. I mentioned under January 31 that I had entered an order to sell what amounted to 18% of my shares if it went to $14.25. By last week I had pretty much forgot taht order was sitting there. Checking my account I notice that sale went through.

One of my RRSP accounts now has around 35% in cash. I am thinking of deploying some of that tomorrow. I am thinking of buying Shaw Communication and Canadian Western Bank. I do want to keep some cash for bigger bargains.

The TMX Group (trading at $42.60) takeover by the Maple Group which is apparently worth about $50. I don’t have a current rating on the TMX but it might not be a bad speculation. It will rise if the Maple takeover goes through and fall somewhat if it does not. But long term TMX is probably a good investment without the takeover in any case.

We should be getting more Canadian company earnings reports in the next two weeks or so (including Melcor). About 95% of the S&P 500 had already reported Q4 earnings by the middle of last week, so their the earnings season is about over.

My popular article on the valuation of the S&P 500 index has been updated. With the surge in stock prices in the past few month that market now looks about fairly valued and no longer looks under-valued.

Today’s Financial Post reveals the sad story of First Leaside Group of Companies which with $370 million invested by some 1200 investors has gone into receivership. This is an investment company with very prominent Board members that has been around since the 1980’s. 

I note that investors were apparently targeted by cold calls and repeated sales pressure. 

There are many thousands of small investment outfits raising money in Canada. Often in real estate and oil and gas. Having listened to their advertisements for many years and having been solicited a few times, I have never invested a cent. (Well, except for about $1500 I put into the Canadian Property Investors Trust back in the early 1980’s which went insolvent shortly after). 

One I started investing through TD Waterhouse I have stuck to that 100%. I would not be very comfortable writing a cheque to some investment outfit. I prefer to buy only what trades online. Many small investment outfits are perfectly legitimate. But it would take a lot of effort to get comfortable with any of these. A good general rule of thumb in life is  that the harder (and more desperately) someone is trying to sell you something, the more cautious you should be. The best products, be they cars or investments do not need high pressure sales.

Warren Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders was released this morning. This wisdom-filled letter is in effect a gift to investors and is released in such a way that hundreds of thousands can download it all at the same time. Basically everyone on earth gets this gift at the same time (Who says there is no Santa Claus?).

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf

Buffett has always said his job is to increase the ture or intrinsic value per share of Berkshire at a rate higher than the total return on the S&P 500 index. He uses accounting book value as an under-stated measure of progress. If he can do this the stock price will follow. In 2011 book value increase4.6% which beat the total return on the S&P 500 which was 2.1%.

Since Buffett took over Berkshire in 1965 its book value per share has increased at a compounded rate of 19.8% annually, which just over twice the compounded return on the S&P 500 (including dividends) which was 9.2%. By beating the S&P 500 by 10.6% per year Buffett has grown the book value per share of Berkshire by a staggering 513,055%. The S&P 500 total return over that period was 6,397%. A dollar of book value in Berkshire has grown to $5130 while a dollar in the S&P 500 has grown to $64.

However Buffett is quick to point out that we should account for inflation. The purchasing power of a dollar has decreased such that it takes over $7 (on average) to buy what $1 bought in 1965. Let’s assume it is exactly $7 for the sake of round numbers. Dividing by 7, the real return in purchasing power of the book value a Berkshire share has gown by 513,055% / 7 = 73,294%.

And the share price market value  has grown somewhat faster than its book value per share.

Remarkably, Berkshire shares that were about $15 in 1965 today sell for $120,000 each. A gain of an even 800,000%. It takes 1500 B shares to make an A share. Accordingly the B shares trade at $120,000 / 1500 or $80 per share. (I don’t have the exact price of Berkshire in 1965 and it would have fluctuated through the year, Buffett’s average cost to acquire control of Berkshire was under $15 but some of those purchases were prior to 1965).

Remarkably enough, the equivalent of a B share in 1965 would have cost about $15/1500 or 1 cent. So, each penny invested in Berkshire in shares in 1965 is now worth $80. Even after inflation that means each penny’s worth of real purchasing power has been transformed into $11.43 today. A gain of 114,300%.

I’d be surprised if any public company has EVER provided a return of over 100,000% in real after-inflation purchasing power since 1965. Perhaps Apple has, and if so, that would be over a shorter time.

And I am highly confident that we will see Berkshire’s shares continue to grow in terms of both booth value and market value over the next few years in particular.

Markers were moderately positive today. Very soon, I will be updating the report on the valuation of the S&P 500. I expect it will show that the market index still appears to be cheap.

Yesterday I mentioned AIMIA inc. (the former Group Aeroplan, and before that Aeroplan) which released earnings last night. I was bothered by the earnings release that seemed to be trying paint a very positive picture despite reporting a large loss. Perhaps the market was a bit confused by the release. The shares having closed yesterday at $13.08 before this news opened down only very slightly at $13.00. But they trended down all morning before stabilizing at around noon. They ended up down 7.5% at $12.10. Normally on bad news a stock would open down sharply at the open. The trading patter here suggests a delayed reaction to the press release.   It is neither here nor there if you don’t own these shares. But I don’t like to see this kind of confused presentation of results. It’s unfortunate for those who bought this morning before the market was able to digest the news properly.

The Canadian market was up 0.6% today but the U.S. markets were down modestly. Some of our key stock picks here and three that I own were whacked down today. Walmart fell for the second day after disappointing earnings. Toll Brothers was down 5%, Canadian Tire was down 2.2%. I am tempted to add to my position in these but instead am trying to have the discipline to hold onto my cash in case further bargains emerge. (One of my RRSP accounts is one third in cash, but the other RRSP account has only little cash and my non-registered account is leveraged (negative cash) so overall I have little net cash). Markets have been up a LOT in the past few months and it’s no surprise to see a pull-back. There are always things to worry about but on the other hand there are certainly positive signs in the U.S. economy as well.  And U.S. election promises may also have some positive effects.

Buffett’s annual letter will be out on Saturday morning. We already know, from the Fortune magazine article that I mentioned last week,  that in the letter he will suggest that Stocks are a better investment in the long run than is gold or bonds. This has prompted may to argue that he is wrong that Gold is a poor investment (which he did not even say!). He will be on CNBC on Monday morning. I would like to hear his views on the Greek debt swap charade.

A company that I used to have on this site has reported earnings tonight. This is Aimia which was formerly called Groupe Aeroplan and before that just Aeroplan. (I wonder why the name change?) They lost money in Q4 and in 2011 but they spin a story that they were profitable without goodwill impairments and breakage adjustments. Their accounting has always been complex by nature and subject to estimates. For a variety of reasons I have lost all trust in this company. I sold my shares some years ago. I would steer clear. They may in fact be a good investment and they may be entirely ethical. But the way they report things and the way they expire Aeroplan points after 7 years (and worse after one year of inactivity) all combined to give me a bad feeling. A few years ago I saw but excused somewhat similar red flags regarding Kingsway Financial and lost money as a result (and worse, we gave a rating here that proved far too optimistic that some subscribers followed, albeit at their own risk and albeit I did reveal the flags I saw). Once bitten, twice shy. (I will assume the rat I think I smell at Aimia is real, even if it might not be a real rat).

Searching back, I see that my last comment on Aeroplan was December 30,2010 when I mentioned the complex accounting, rated it Speculative Weak Buy at $13.75 and said I would not buy it. Today it closed at $10.97. (Update to comment, actually that was the price under the old stock ticker AER from October 6, the new ticker is AIM and it closed yesterday at $13.08).

U.S. markets finished only moderately higher but the Canadian market did very well today. It’s enough to make a person dizzy. But the point is to just buy individual stocks of good companies at good prices and not sweat the volatility too much. It’s a bit like a roller-coaster ride. Very scary but if you just hang in there it all works out in the end.

In an interesting development, after the close of trading, Telus announced that it will hold a vote to convert its non-voting shares to voting. I had thought that this might happen but did not know when.

The non-voting shares have traditionally traded at a lower price and in the case of Telus I have said we should favor the cheaper non-voting shares.

I don’t have Telus on the list above at this time. But the last update (Buy rated at $50.70 on May 22, 2011 for the non-voting shares) the last sentence in the summary cell was: “We prefer the non-voting shares since the voting shares
are costlier and in this particular case we do not place any value on the vote.”.

I searched back in the old comments since I was sure I said something about the non-voting shares eventually becoming voting. Back on June 27, 2007 the comment included: “In the very long run the non-voting are worth the same as the voting and someday the two classes will likely become one.”

And our article on Dual class shares (of February 6, 2006) states:

“Class merger may be another reason to purchase one class over the other. For example, if there is the possibility of the merger of the classes you may want to purchase the non-voting share because the premium on the voting class may evaporate.”

So, the point is that this Telus development was not unexpected, but it was certainly a long time coming.

Canadian Tire has a very wide gap between its very thinly traded voting shares ($73.50) and the much more numerous non-voting shares ($65.14). I would be very leery to buy the voting shares. I have said previously that I can’t see any justification for that gap. (I can speculate that maybe some party values that vote, but fundamentally I can’t see its value). My understanding is that in the event of any kind of change in control of Canadian Tire (say the founding Billes family sells out) then the non-voting shares become voting. With this development at Telus we may see the voting shares at Canadian Tire drop in price.  (In the case of Telus the non-voting should rise to close the gap tomorrow).

Walmart dropped about 4% today on the revelation that its low price strategy of late caused a drop in profit. My recollection is that back in the Fall analysts were loudly applauding lower prices as it would lead to higher sales and same-store sales. But for some reason they now seem surprised this hurt profits. At the end of the day Walmart still looks like good value. I was tempted to add to my position today but did not.

My understanding of the Greek debt swap deal is that it is still subject to each individual bond holder voluntarily turning in their binds for new long-term bonds at some 47 cents on the dollar. This will happen March 8 through 10th. I read today that they expect a 95% take-up rate. I suppose I am only guessing but I doubt that they will get to 95%. I would think that is a few bond holders refuse to go along with the voluntary swap then those bond holders might get their 100 cents on the dollar. Otherwise this swap that is not “officially” a default would have to be an official default. Also many of the bond holders apparently hold insurance against default. If so, I really can’t see how those parties can volunteer to take a loss and give up on their insurance. (Their stakeholders would sue). Meanwhile this deal may also require agreement of each and every member of the European Union. That is no small hurdle.

A Greek debt debt deal was worked of late Monday (early Tuesday in Europe). The next major step is to see if parties actually do show up on March 8 to trade in their former Greek bonds for some 47 cents on the dollar in longer dated Greek bonds. The whole thing looks like a giant charade. A ridiculous attempt to paint a default as being something other than that.

It’s really not impressive to see world leaders involved in this ridiculous matter. Greece was obviously loaned too much money.

Well we will stand by for the next act in this comedic/tragic play.

Meanwhile for the moment the U.S. stock futures suggest the Dow will open roughly 50 points higher on Tuesday morning. But really that is of little consequence as wherever it opens it will move off to some other level up, or dow..

In other matters I was reading Toll brothers annual report on Friday. Everything I read looks good. This company really seems to have been vary well managed through the real estate crash. It saw its sales fall by something like 70% but managed to raise its cash substantially by selling assets and not buying new land during most of the crisis and then finally starting to buy only more recently as the bottom started to near. There are obviously no guarantees but I feel quite good holding this company. I may even consider buying additional shares.

Well, it promises to be another exciting week in the markets…

The week ended nicely for stocks.

I have posted a new version of the free newsletter. However, due to system problems I am unable to email it out. The system problems that have occurred in the past two weeks have been partially but not completely fixed.

Here is the link to the latest free newsletterr, some interesting topics…

The Dow and the TSX were both up 123 points today, or 1.0% each. Bank of America was up 4.0%, Microsoft was up 4.1% and Boston Pizza was up another 1.7%. Stantec was up 5.0% today after instituting a dividend for the first time. And FirstService was up 5.3%.

As I have said in the past, to the brave go the spoils. Over the past few years a large percentage of people shunned the market due to their fears. But, as of now at least, it looks like it was yet another example that it was wise to follow Buffett’s advice and “be greedy when others are fearful” (and vice versa). Those who do nothing but moan about the markets and complain about it being manipulated and on and on tend to stay out of stocks and to not do nearly as well in the long term.

Basically I feel good about the markets right now, although of course it only takes a few days of losses of to add a tinge of nervousness to the equation. Markets are rewarding, but they are not for the faint of heart or those who can’t stomach losses, even temporarily.

Today’s markets ended to the down-side mostly. No one can say if this is the start of bigger decline. My strategy will be to hold through any decline and probably add to positions. Stocks still look cheap. I may enter some orders to trim positions a little if they rise and buy a little if they fall. But for the most part I will be standing pat.

Warren Buffett has a new article in Fortune Magazine, looking at cash, stocks and gold as investments:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46328808?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS

This is REQUIRED reading. (Drop what you are doing and read it right now, if at all possible) The writing is so plain, the logic so clear. He says stocks are safer than cash, bonds or Gold in the long run. Nothing in the article surprises me because I have studied what Buffett has written and there is nothing fundamentally new here, although it is packaged up nicely. And it is nice to get the confirmation that nothing has changed that he sees stocks as better than bonds today (Gee, who’d a thunk it with stocks having dividend yields over 2% on average, (and constantly growing) and earnings yields of around 8% with growth potential and with even long term government bonds returning under 3% with zero growth and cash and short term bonds returning nothing. On top of that stock returns are taxed less heavily!)

One place where gold bugs go wrong is they view an investment in stocks as an investment in a paper fiat currency. Not true, stocks are measured in money but they represent investments in corporations that produce something of value. That value is largely independent of the currency it is measured in, especially in the long term. Gold bugs also fail to notice that Gold is also measured in dollars and not the other way around.

My own analysis has shown the same thing as Buffett notes — that stocks wallop gold and cash and bonds in the long term. It’s why I have “foolishly” been close to 100% allocated to stocks since I started invested. (It’s not for everyone, but it’s done well for me).

For example: Asset Performance and Asset Allocation Real Growth Scenarios

GREECE DEFAULT

The financial world is holding its breath waiting for some kind of Greek bond swap deal. The negotiations seem to go on forever.

And what is the point anyhow? It seems like we are trying to avoid an actual default which is considered “messy” by having a sort of soft-landing “orderly” default where investors “voluntarily” swap their bonds for new longer term bonds at some 50 cents on the dollar. It sure looks, walks and quakes like a default but they would try to dress it up as a voluntary thing. Apparently the idea is to avoid the triggering of credit default swaps (insurance against deault) since triggering those would have nasty ripple affects.

This seems to be madness for a number of reasons. 1. Greece is going to have some trouble borrowing in future either way. 2. If Greece obtains this voluntary 50% reduction in its debt it then gets bail out money that it presumably has to repay. 3. The European Union is requiring austerity measures that will shrivel Greek’s economy 4. The Greek people are mad as hell and not willing to take this. 5. It’s exceedingly unlikely that the actual owners of these bonds will voluntarily take the 50 cents at the end of the day. The bond holders are apparently represented by a finance industry group which I strongly suspect has no power to bind the actual bond holders. 6. The actual bond holders are corporate entities and pension funds that probably face fiduciary barriers from negotiating a voluntary hit like this outside of an actual bankruptcy process. 7. Hilariously enough event eh European Central Bank which has bought up a huge amount of the debt is not willing to take this voluntary reduction.

So, what should Greece do?

Here is my (possibly mis-informed) prescription:

Greece should immediately default on all bonds except those held by its own citizens and corporations. (If not an immediate default then consider something like a forced swap for perpetual bonds (at perhaps dollar for dollar or 50 cents on the dollar or whatever) and paying say 3% and redeemable by Greece at any time).

Basically Greece simply can’t afford to pay these bonds when due and so they gotta do something. Just like a peron sometimes has no choice but to go bankrupt.

These (like I guess all or nearly all sovereign bonds) were non-recourse bonds anyhow, too bad people did not read the fine print.

Then simply borrow new money by offering bonds backed by assets and future taxes. Investors world wide will lend to them when backed by assets and enforceable by some kind of world court or United Nations or something.

Sell bonds to its own citizens also backed by assets.

Paint the rest of the world as the villains and encourage Greeks to invest in Greek bonds.

Greece default is thought to harm Euro banks. So what?, the EU can bail those out. Some Greek bond holders will like this plan as credit default swaps will pay off. Too bad for the banks that issued that insurance. Anyhow EU can bail out the banks.

Take some austerity measures like pay cuts to government workers and later retirement ages but try to avoid killing the economy. Sell off assets as needed.

Do this very soon and stop all this nonsense about a voluntary default that is not called a default.

Other News:

It ended up being a “mixed” day in the markets.

I would not mind trimming some of my positions, but for the most part I feel like I would want to hold out for higher prices. And if we instead get a meaningful decline in any of the stocks I own (say 10% or more) I may just add to positions instead. (You know, buy low, sell high).

I almost wish Boston Pizza ($15.64 had not risen so soon after I bought it which was on December 28 at $14.00.
I like to think I would have bought more in January had it stayed at $14. I bought it for the dividend. It may still be a good pick but I always have a hard time buying more shares at a higher price since that seems like an admission that I should have bought more. This is basically an illogical thought pattern, but it is an emotional pattern that is a reality I have to deal with. I’ll try to update the report on this one shortly because after I update a report, that seems to act as a re-set switch in my brain and then I am often more prepared to pay the higher price if a fresh analysis indicates it is still a good buy.

Another point to consider is that just because a stock is expected to by a good buy does not automatically mean you should buy it. Perhaps you are already over-exposed to that stock. More importantly it almost certain that out there somewhere is a BETTER buy, so it can make sense to sit on cash and wait for a better opportunity. (Just as girl does not have to grab the first acceptable guy that comes along, she may want to wait and look for a better choice, and waiting is especially wise when applied to life-mates since it tends to be a one-time decision – If you think the cost to trade stocks is at all high — especially including capital gains tax, try trading in your spouse – not something I ever want to experience nor would I recommend you try it.)

I mentioned several times recently my doubt that the Greek bond holders could possibly agree to a voluntary reduction in the value of their bonds. I feel there is no way they would ever get the 100% agreement that one would think would be necessary to avoid a default on the bonds. Well laugh out loud I read this morning that the European Central Bank holds 55 billion face value of the bonds and it expects to hold to majority and get paid in full rather agree to the reduction. This is ludicrous. Why would any other bond holder agree to the reduction? In fact many other investors hold a type of insurance on these bonds that pays off in the event of default. The theory is that they will agree to a voluntary reduction so that the insurance (credit default swaps) will not pay off. This is preposterous. It is like asking you and I to have some one drive a large truck into our car causing damage equal to half the value of the car and then agreeing not to calim the insurance we paid for. Get real. How could any pension fund for example agree to this? It would be against their  duty to pensioners. Even for the good of the world economy, they cannot and I suspect will not ultimate do this.

P.S. With the market up today, it might be wise to shave a few positions. The difficulty though is always what to sell… (update, sorry when I wrote this this morning I thought the market was up, I must have been looking at the gain from yesterday)

Okay, I am back from my short vacation to Phoenix… Looks like the market took care of itself quite nicely while I was off line.

In particular Canadian Tire came out with good earnings on Thursday and was up quite nicely. I suspect (but certainly cannot guarantee) it will continue to do well in 2012, better than the market as a whole. Wells Fargo and Toll brothers should continue to do well as long as even a slow recovery continues.

There continue to be some technical problems with the log in system for this site. I had hoped it would be fixed by now and I will be attempting to get his resolved ASAP.

Note that the log in system has been by passed due to a server problem. This should be fixed in a few days. Meanwhile you can log in without a password.

I am off to Phoenix until Sunday and so will resume the comments here late on Sunday.

For the most part, the economic news continues to be positive. For example strong building permit growth in Canada in December and most company earnings reports have been positive.

Canadian Tire reports earnings tomorrow, Thursday and I am hopeful of a good report. The U.S. banks will get some kind of stress test reports next month and I am hopeful that Wells Fargo will increase its dividend by around the end of March. Bank of America may also resume some level of dividend.

Not too much happened in the markets today as we await some kind of a deal from Greece. As the week progresses we will get earnings reports to focus on.

Stocks are off to a roaring start in in 2012. The Dow is up 5.3%, the Toronto Stock index is up a similar 5.2% and the S&P 500 is up 6.9%. Our six Strong Buys are up an average of 7.4%. My own portfolio is up 4.7%. ( I have been taking some profits off the table and have some cash, but I am certainly not unhappy with a 4.7% return in five weeks.

Talks to voluntarily restructure Greece’s debt continue. I fully expect these talks to fail or at least to eventually lead to an official default by Greece. This will likely cause a temporary hit to North American markets. (Or it could cause a small rise if it is successful or even appears to be successful this week). I imagine that somewhere a hedge fund is accumulating Greek debt on the cheap and will refuse to accept the 50 cent offer and this will force Greece to officially default. I don’t see much up-side for any investment fund to voluntarily accept 50 cents. And also some of these investors have credit default options which will protect them from losses on the Greek bonds. But they apparently give up that protection if they agree to accept 50 cents. That seems like a ludicrous scenario.

U.S. markets were down modestly today while Canada was up modestly.

RIM was up 2.9% today to $17.17. This is nice gain from its recent low of $12.80 in December. We rated it Strong Buy at $13.44. But I did not expect it to rise so fast in the absence of a take-over. It does look like good value but could certainly be quite volatile.

On the European front it seems the Institute of International Finance is still trying to negotiate some “voluntary” Greek debt restructuring. I don’t see how it can happen since there is no possible way anything close to 100% of the bond holders will agree to this and unlike in a real default / bankruptcy there is nothing to compel anyone to accept the deal even if one is reached. I mentioned this also on October 30. I don’t see what would stop a hedge fund or strategic investor from buying bonds in the market now at 40 or 50 cents or less and then refusing to participate in any voluntary exchange. They would ultimately collect 100 cents unless Greece actually does officially default.

A strong day in the markets… notable winners were Wells Fargo up 2.8% and Toll Brothers up 3.0%.

Tomorrow is Ground Hog day. It’s interesting how the human mind gravitates towards patterns and sees patterns where none exist and no plausible relationship even exists. Like the length of winter based on a ground hog’s shadow, or such nonsense of January indicators, Superbowl indicator and so many more.

Okay, I’m back from my cruise. Excellent weather sunny and just over 80 degrees Fahrenheit most of the time (day and night). Lots of air conditioning to keep cool when that is wanted. It’s a good way to travel. Others to ALL the work. It’s affordable. We were on Royal Caribbean. At least on our late January cruise this is definitely an older crowd. Very few families with kids. Almost no college aged people. Just us wretched boomers spending our money. I am have absolutely no complaints about the trip and the service whatsoever.

I notice Royal Caribbean shares RCL on New York have a trailing P/E of 9.35 according to Yahoo. I may take a look at their annual report when it releases in a month or so. Many businesses could learn a lot about customer service from this company. I also found the four islands we visited work hard to keep tourists happy (and spending). Well trained and knowledgeable taxi drivers and tour guides for example.

The markets seemed to do okay during my trip. However Friday was down modestly  Monday was down modestly most of the day before a late recovery and today Tuesday the markets are again down a little. As always, there is certainly a chance that markets will decline at any moment due to world events. But meanwhile I am mostly holding. Noticing Melcor was up today I placed an order to sell what amounts to 18% of my Melcor shares at $14.25. As I have explained a number of times (and As indicated in my personal portfolio breakdown)  I have a large exposure to a few companies including Melcor. Also I bought additional Melcor and others on weakness this past Fall and it makes sense now to trim on strength.

I observe that the trimming I have done in the past couple of months on strength has cost me money as stocks kept rising. Still, it was definitely a good decision to trim. There is a difference between a good decision and a good outcome. Good decisions are bases on analysis, good outcomes — especially in the short term — are partly due to good analysis but with a huge measure of good luck thrown in.

We are about to enter the year-end earnings reporting  season in Canada. There will be lots of earnings reports in the next six to eight weeks. I am not sure if any Canadian companies have already report December 31 earnings.

There will not be any daily posts or updates here for the next ten days or so. I am off on vacation on a Royal Caribbean cruise ship that goes South from San Juan Puerto Rico. We will be stopping at St. Thomas, St. Kitts, Aruba and Curacao on this seven day cruise. Comments and updates will resume on January 30 or 31.

Markets were up a little today. These first three weeks of January have seen excellent market gains. Our average Strong Buy is up 6.2% and our average Buy rated stock is up 3.1%. It happens that our one Sell rated stock is down 2.5%, so that is a good start indeed.  (This excludes Dollarama which was added after the start of the year)

I sold the 300 shares of RIM from my wife’s RRSP today at $17.42. I had bought these on December 22 at $13.79, so there was a profit of $1089 less $20 in Commissions. I have always ran that account on a somewhat lower risk basis and I figured why not grab the quick profit. I also sold the options that I had on RIM for a profit. I kept the 300 RIM shares that I have in my own RRSP account. I did mention on December 17 that RIM might be a “real opportunity”. so maybe I should have really loaded up and then hung on. But I figured I would hedge my bets here, keep the 300 shares in my own account and sell the rest. It’s definitely a volatile stock, it will move up and down on rumor until we get some real news.

Today was a good day for our stock picks. Toll Brothers was up 4.8%. Bank of America which I don’t rate but which I have talked about a fair amount was up 4.9%. FirstService was up 4.4%.

Wells Fargo came out with earnings before the open today. I think the earnings were quite good and the company is growing. Still the stock did not rise much. I sold 300 shares at $30.40 based on an order I had placed a week or so ago. But I still hold over 6000 shares and it is my largest holding, so I am not exactly bailing out here. I am hopeful the market will take better notice of the good results over the next few days. Also it may increase its dividend before long. I may place another order to sell a few more shares if the price goes up to say $32.

I’ve revised the rating on Dollarama to Weak Sell instead of Weak Buy. The numbers would really say don’t buy. But it is a very strong company and I was somewhat reluctant to rate it as any kind of Sell. But really the numbers indicate it is very richly valued. While it could continue to rise, I think it would be wise to take profits if you own this or to stand aside if you don’t own it.

Canadian Tire share price has slid a bit to $63.07. If I did already own a lot of it I would be buying. On a value basis there is no comparison between Dollarama and Canadian Tire, Canadian Tire is the better value by miles. Dollarama share are pricing in very strong growth. Canadian Tire share are pricing in very little growth. I suspect Canadian Tire could “release value” at will by such moves as selling store real estate and leasing it back or perhaps selling its credit card division. But Canadian Tire chooses not to do that. Dollarama meanwhile has apparently fine tuned the ability to generate profits from its stores. But it does not own its real estate and so any sign of decline or slower growth in its profit could torpedo the share price. In other words Dollarama is priced for near perfection. Maybe it will continue to operate to near perfection. But there is a danger it will not.

I just made a few minor edits to the Dollarama report as I noticed a couple of cells were left incomplete. It’s numbers are rather interesting. It’s net profit margins are 9.8% which is I think the highest I have seen in a retail operation. More typical would be under 5%. The market capitalization is $3.3 billion which compares to Canadian Tire at $5.2 billion. Something is more than a little odd about that.

Dollarama is added to the list above as a Weak Buy at $43.49. This is a very nice business. It has surprisingly strong margins and excellent growth. However, the share price since its IPO in late 2009 at $17.50 has probably surpassed all expectations. It does not look like a buy to me. It could however continue to do well. If I owned it I would consider lightening my position.

Speaking of retail operations, I was in a Home Depot yesterday. The place was relatively empty and when I got to the register no one was in front of me. I am not familiar with the profitability of Home Depot. But I think it is clear to say that it is not as strong a business as Costco. When you are in a Costco the place is crowded, especially on a weekend. And Costco sells its inventory before it even has to pay the suppliers. The inventory in a Home Depot would likely move through MUCH slower. However Home Depot would have higher mark ups. We rated Costco a Weak Sell above which may have been too low a rating. It always looks expensive but Costco could probably increase its profits at will by raising prices (since its markups are so low) or by using more debt financing. I may need to take that into more consideration at the next update of Costco. The company has a new CEO now and just maybe it will focus a bit more on higher profits.

As of later on Sunday evening, markets are projected to open down slightly.

This coming week we should see some of our companies report Q4 earnings, I am looking forward to seeing the earnings at Wells Fargo.

Shaw Communications is updated and rated (higher) Buy at $19.83. Note the 4.9% yield. I will consider buying more Shaw by selling some of my larger positions but I will not likely do that until after my larger holding report their Q1 results.

Markets were a bit weak today, but the week overall was good. The year has started off well for our stock picks. The six stocks that are rated in the Strong Buy category are up an average of 3.4%, led by RIM at 12%. The 17 stocks in the Buy category are up an average of 1.3%. My own portfolio which is quite concentrated in a few stocks is up 3.1%.

Shaw Communications reported earnings before the open today. The market was not excited by the earnings and the shares were down 1.4%. To me, the earnings looked pretty good. There was a loss of 23,000 basic cable customers or 1.0%. But I figure that is not that bad considering the competition from Telus T.V. And Shaw gained another 23,000 digital phone customers and 11,000 internet customers, so still some growth. And lots of cable customers are upgrading to digital and I suspect more channels.

Dividend was raised by 5% and yield is 4.8%.

But there are some signs of weakness in that the media division revenue was down 3% (on a comparable basis — last year they did not own Shaw Media for the whole three months of the comparable quarter). Cable revenue also was only up 4% and that counts digital phone as well. Also it looks like competition with Telus is getting more intense – never a good thing for profits.

I plan to update the report soon. Our rating on the stock is currently (higher) Buy and so I suspect it will continue to be rated somewhere in the Buy range.

Research in motion was up 5.5% to $16.80, which is a nice recovery from its very recent low of $12.80 in mid December. On December 17 (below) I commented that this stock might represent a “real opportunity” and I bought some options in December being the first time I have bought options on anything in about four years or so. Still, with all the negative publicity I was not prepared to make a really large bet on it. And we don’t know yet where this company is headed. It’s always possible the price will plunge again with the Q4 results. But it sure looks cheap on a trailing earnings basis.

Markets overall were down a little today. However, our stock picks did well.

In particular Toll Brothers was up 2%. My Bank of America (talked about in these daily comments previously, but not rated) was up 3.6%. and Couche-Tard was up 2%. I did not do any transactions today or enter any orders.

I may trim a few positions…

It was a good day in the markets, Toll brothers was up 4.4%. Bank of America which I hold and have discussed but which is not in the list above was up 5.7%. Here in Canada, Boston Pizza which I bought for yield and not gains was up 1.7%. And Walgreen was up 2.7%.

My Portfolio…

The composition of my own portfolio was very recently updated. It shows that I am over 97% invested in equities and less than 3% in cash. And actually a little bit of money if borrowed outside of my investment accounts and so my net equity position is actually a bit over 100%.

By most any standards my portfolio is very aggressive. On top of the high equity exposure, I am concentrated in not very many stocks. So in that regard I am living dangerously.

So… from an asset allocation or risk management perspective it makes sense for me to trim my equity exposure and trim my exposure to certain companies.

But… I have trouble doing that because all my larger positions are stocks that I rate highly. So I am conflicted about selling a highly rated company.

However, I know that logically asset allocation and risk management should come first and logically i should trim some positions.

And recall that I added to Melcor and other positions as their prices dropped and so it makes perfect sense to reverse that as the price rises.

So… I did sell what amounted to 16% of my Melcor shares today (at $13.65).

I also have a previously disclosed order in to sell a bit more Wells Fargo at $30.40. This will sell only about 4% of my Wells Fargo.

My thinking is to enter a few more Sell order and trim some positions. Ideally I would trim while prices rise in the next few weeks, but certainly that may not be the case.

I really should trim fairly aggressively right now but I am inclined to go more slowly and see where we stand after the Q4 results come in. For example I am hopeful for good results from Canadian Tire in particular. And probably Wells Fargo, although for Wells Fargo the real catalyst I hope for is a dividend increase.

This risk if I don’t trim positions we get a leg down in the markets due to Europe or Iran and I won’t have money to take advantage of lower prices.

Adding to my risk is the fact that my portfolio has grown quite nicely and I have been investing for some 23 years now and I am at the point where new contributions from savings will not save the day if the market falls. Younger investors are in a better position to ride out don-turns since their new contributions from savings are material realtive to their portfolios (no longer necessarily the case for me).

Hopefully that is not too confusing. If it is, well, it is also honest and when we are being honest every investor must admit they have conflicting thoughts about the market. We all struggle with the extent to which greed or fear is going to guide our investment decisions at any point in time. My asset allocation and portfolio composition indicates I have been rather brave — but that does not mean I don’t have my moments of fear or at least moments of thinking I should lower my risks.

Having said all this, I do feel good about the markets right now. And, having said that, anything can happen at anytime. It’s the nature of the beast.

It was not a bad day in the markets as U.S. bank stocks rose. We are now into earnings season. Alcoa reported after the close and its results were apparently better than expected.

I am taking a look at Dollarama right now. Perhaps I am two years too late, I should have looked at it earlier. As always it is going to take a lot of analysis and work before I add it to the site here. If nothing else it will help me in my understanding of retail operations.

As of late Sunday evening, futures suggest the Dow will open down about 35 points. However there was some indication that certain bank liquidity rules are not going to be enforced as rigorously as earlier thought and this may be good for banking shares on Monday.

Our comprehensive reference article on Canadian Exchange Traded Funds is updated. This article contains current P/E ratios and dividends yields for a broad selection of ETFs. It also includes Gold, Silver, Oil and Natural Gas ETFs. Most of you may prefer individual stocks rather than ETFs. still, ETFs can be a good way to rapidly enter and exit the market it you wish to do that. They can also help you fill in any missing sectors. Some of the higher yield ETFs may be of particular interest.

Markets did not do much today. But some of our stock picks did quite well.

Wells Fargo was up 1.6% and Toll Brothers was up 2.1%. A stock that I hold but don’t have a rating on, Bank of America was up a hefty 8.6%. My investment in bank of America was detailed in the comments below (see July 26 and August 2 in particular). I ended up buying it at around $9.50. In retrospect I was at least too early. And I was too greedy as I grabbed quite a bit. Perhaps though time will rescue what seemed like a bad investment as 2011 closed.

So far 2012 has started off quite well for our stock picks and my own portfolio. It would be nice to finish off the week this way. However, as of tonight the futures suggest a down day in the market tomorrow. The fun never ends in this game.

Of interest today, Toll Brothers up 2.9%. So hopefully that bodes well for the U.S. home building industry.

Markets got off to a very strong start for 2012.

Most everything was up.

I sold what amounted to 9% of my Wells Fargo. I had continued to add to Wells Fargo at lower prices this past Fall. So I sold some today at $28.40. I also placed an order to sell a bit more at $30.40. In some ways I don’t want to sell any. But it is my largest holding and perhaps it makes sense to play the volatility a bit. Also I want to raise cash for other investments now or later.

markets seem confident at the moment. Of course things can always change quickly.

The composition of my own portfolio has been updated. It includes mainly Strong Buys and (higher) Buys from the list above but also one two that are Buy rated. My portfolio is by almost any standard over concentrated in a few stocks and I may work to reduce the concentration.

Trading for 2012 starts tomorrow. A few companies in the list above were well out of date. I have now removed these form the list. Some of these might return especially if I think that they would be good buys. I don’t think I would consider any of these to be Sells. If I held them I would be in no big hurry to sell. Then again, I have not looked at them recently. The removed companies are:

Staples, Telus Tim Hortons, Visa, Aeroplan, Bombardier, Constellation Software, Reitmans, and TMX Group.

So, we start the year with:

9 U.S. companies

5 Canadian companies that are also listed in the U.S. for a total of 14 U.S. listed

6 Canadian companies

7 higher yield Canadian entities

27 investment choices in total.

7 entities are rated in the Strong Buy category (but please consider the full report and the reasons why we think it is a Strong Buy and all the comments in the report)

5 are rated (higher) Buy and 10 are rated Buy.

I hope to add a few new companies before too long and some of those deleted from the list may return.

Generally speaking stocks appear attractive as we enter 2012. There are, as always, risks. World events could push the entire market lower at any time. And individual companies are always subject to negative developments. Stock investors tend to do well over time but it is not without periods of losses.

Walgreen Company inc., the largest U.S. drugstore chain is updated and rated (higher) Buy at $33.06. It’s price has dropped to quite an attractive level due to the loss of about 5% of its customers who are covered bor drugs through a drug plan management company called Express Scripts. Walgreen refused to lower its prices sufficiently for express scripts but feels this was best for Walgreen and it believes it can win back many of the customers. It may be an opportunity to buy a great company at a time when it has been somewhat wounded. I may buy some shares.

eBay is updated and rated Weak Buy / Hold at $30.33. This company is a sort of toll booth collecting fees on everything sold on eBay as well as fees for payments with PayPal. Both auction sites and payment systems benefit from “first-mover” advantages whereby an incumbent has competitive advantages and it is difficult to compete against an incumbent. Given these characteristics eBay could be considered as an investment. Personally I am bothered by its attitude toward stock options and would not buy unless the price were more compelling.

Happy New Year. Our Performance for 2011 has been updated. It was not a great year in the markets but we did easily beat the the market for the 10th year out of 12.

I feel good about the selection of Buys and Strong Buys (in the table above) as we enter 2012. World financial conditions could certainly throw a wrench into he works. But that is always the case. Stocks tend to be unpredictable in the short term but tend to do well over the long term. And if one can manage to hold better than average stocks then, all the better.

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