July 2, 2015

On Thursday, the S&P 500 was about unchanged while Toronto, in catch up mode for the holiday, was up 0.6%.

CN railway was up 1.9%.

Canadian Western Bank was down 2.6%.

Times like this when stocks have been flat or down in the past year are often better times to buy than times when stocks have risen. But emotionally it feels best to buy when stocks have been rising.

If I had substantial cash in my accounts, the stocks from our list that I would buy include firstly Melcor, Canadian Western Bank and Boston Pizza Royalties. After that also any of the stocks on the list that are rated Buy or higher. (i.e., this excludes the (lower) Buy rated stocks). I would include ONEX although it seems a bit more speculative. I would exclude RioCan REIT at this time since my rating is out of date.

With the Canadian dollar taking a sudden dip under 80 cents I would be inclined to move some U.S. cash back to Canadian dollars. But as I have said before the transaction fees to do it are a bit onerous and so I have no immediate plans to do so (partly because while I have substantial U.S. investments, I have little U.S. cash).

With the U.S. dollar having risen against most currencies dueing Q2 we can expect U.S. multi-nationals to report a currency hit in their Q2 reports. This would include Wal Mart, Costco and VISA.

Canadian companies with substantial U.S.  and international revenues will benefit from our lower dollar. This includes CN, Stantec, Couche-Tard and Bombardier. Couche-Tard and Bombardier are a bit complicated because they report in U.S. dollars and the currency move will lower earnings as reported in U.S. dollars but it will be an increase in Canadian dollars.

 

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