March 23, 2020

On Monday, the S&P 500 was down 2.9% and Toronto plunged 5.3%.

The economic shutdown continues and deepens daily. 

The case counts and lack of testing in the U.S. is frightful.

There is some indication the cases in Italy may be peaking. 

Unless there is some news to indicate that the shutdowns will be short lived, and/or there is a big break through in treatment, it seems likely that the market declines will continue.

The banking sector will be interesting. They will be allowing businesses and especially individuals to defer payments and yet will continue to accrue interest. Those deferred payments will likely not be treated as delinquent. I guess that makes sense where the government is guaranteeing payment such as CMHC mortgages. I am not sure it is a fair representation of reality for loans not guaranteed by government.The banking sector will be supported by government actions and so it may be an area to pick up bargains. But I would not be rushing to deploy cash yet.

Even if this is relatively short-lived, the accounting implications will take months to sort out. The economy is likely to emerge at a lower level and that will mean a certain amount of write-offs. Those involve judgement.

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