March 21, 2020

Markets spent much of Friday somewhat higher but ultimately ended lower with the S&P 500 down 4.3% and Toronto down 2.6%.

The extent of business closures is monumental. We can only hope that it will be short-lived.

If this lock down lasts two months or more then many businesses will be in grave trouble. It’s unknown how many the government will save.

I don’t think anyone can forecast how low stocks can go. Panic selling at this time might prove a bad idea if the situation is short-lived. But the fact is there is reason for a certain amount of panic. Older investors will certainly want to emerge from this with some cash both for expenses and for buying opportunities at some point.

I am looking for good news on the virus front but see little except that China seems to have largely defeated the virus and a few other countries are doing well.

As the lock down tightens in Canada and the USA the outlook for stocks probably continues to be for further declines. I do hope that some good news proves otherwise.

I see the Melcor REIT has reduced its monthly distribution to 3 cents from 5.625. This is likely just the beginning of announcements like this. 

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