August 27, 2023

On Friday, the S&P 500 was up 0.7% and Toronto was up 0.3%.

The FED chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the FED is committed to getting inflation back to 2%. The implication appeared to be that a another interest rate increase or two might be coming and certainly there should be no expectation of a rate decrease until and unless inflation is below 2%. This probably means that some sort of recession is coming.

The shortest term interest rates remain high and may go a bit higher. The direction of longer term interest rates is much tougher to predict. Possibly they have peaked. The inverted yield curve suggests an expectation that short-term interest rates will decline although that could easily be 18 months or more ion the future.

Having a balanced approach to equities, fixed income and short-term cash investments remains prudent. Being overly certain of where things are headed is not a great idea. 

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