August 31, 2015

On Monday, the S&P 500 fell 0.8% and Toronto was about flat.

Oil surged 8% to over $48 but now sits at $47.60.

AutoCanada was up 4.3%.

Toll Brothers is at $36.97 which is down from recent highs of $42.19 due to both the overall market decline and a somewhat weak earnings report last week.

BUT the weak earnings in this latest quarter were related to house contracts signed about a year ago. Meanwhile house sales contracts were up 12% in numbers and 30% in dollars. This basically bakes in earnings growth next year as revenue is booked only when a house is completed and delivered. I was surprised that earnings were down this quarter and I have not completed my analysis of why but my initial assessment is that the upward profit march for Toll Bothers remains in place. I would still consider the company to be a Buy. Last years Q3 had a large surge in earnings (like a double) and so the decline this year compared to that may be partly a result of volatility or lumpiness. There was a lot of good news in the report such as a record high in the price of house sale contracts signed. That profit will show up when the houses are built.

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