2012

North American markets were up about 0.7% today after ALco reported better-than-expected earnings.
Of note, Canadian Tire was up 3.0%, Toll Brothers 4.0% and Bank of America 3.7%. Melcor was down 2.7% to $14.37 which I think is a buying opportunity.
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Liquor Stores N.A. Ltd (formerly Liquor Stores Income Fund) is added to the list above as a Buy at $17.01. Perhaps this can help quench the thirst for dividends with its 6.3% yield. I would not necessarily count on much growth here although we could ...

Markets were down 1% on the Dow Jones and 0.7% Toronto.
I see where BMO Capital Markets is expected a flat quarter from Shaw Communications. We will see on Friday morning... I was hoping for better than that.
 
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Markets as of Sunday night are predicted to open on Monday morning about 125 points down on the Dow. Personally, I don't see that as cause for alarm at all. Of course markets could take a big drop, that is always the case. But over time as the econom...

Two important analysis articles are updated for 2011 year-end data.
The first shows what happened to portfolios  for all the possible 30-year savings periods from 1926 to 1955 all the way to 1982 through 2011 invested in either 1. 100% U.S. stocks (S...

The latest edition of our free newsletter was sent out today.
Stocks were down on Thursday. And today, Friday the jobs report in the U.S. was disappointing and could send stocks down on Monday.  Nevertheless, I feel good about holding stocks at this ...

Markets were down again today... Everyday the market turns its attention to something new. Tomorrow, I believe tit will be the latest jobs reports. Next week of the week after the focus will be on Q1 earnings. It seems to me that the economy is still...

The Dow was down 0.5% today and the Toronto index was down 1.5%. Our stocks picks were mostly down as well.
I have mentioned the secondary share offering of Constellation Software. This was a sale of shares by a major shareholder (OMERs private equit...

It was another good day in the markets. One of our favorites,  Canadian Tire was up 2.3%. Melcor has slipped a bit lately and is definitely worth considering at around $15.
Constellation Software's secondary offering of shares (it was OMERs private e...

In about two weeks Shaw Communications will release its Q2 earnings. No doubt they will report some loss of basic cable customers to Telus. On the other hand they will likely gain customers in total when phone and internet is considered. I would be s...

Today is the last trading day of Q1. It has been a very good quarter for out stock picks. U.S. markets are up 8% in the quarter. The Toronto market is up 3.6% but has been volatile.
With our stocks performing sell there is perhaps a danger of feeling...

Sino-Forest filed for bankruptcy protection today. I suspect shareholders will never see a dime out of this. They say they will sue Muddy Waters for defamatory statements that they were a fraud. Well, if they were a legitimate busienss why can't they...

Toll Brothers is up 3% this morning and was up a similar amount yesterday. This is the highest the stock has been since the financial crisis. It's interesting to see the stock rise these two days as the news out of the U.S. housing market this week s...

Visa Inc. is added back to the list rated Buy at $119.35. I had removed it from the list in late December because the rating had gotten well out of date.
A search of the comments below will confirm that over the last couple of years I referred to VIS...

It was a strong day in the markets and for our Stock Picks.
Possibly I should be reducing risk by harvesting some gains. But overall I feel good about the markets and am content to let my investments ride (accepting that there is always a risk that p...

I ran some numbers on Amazon today. I have been wanting to add some more well known companies like this to the list above. In part this is because I would enjoy learning more about the business fundamentals of additional companies. Also I could hopef...

Our stock picks were mostly up of Friday. Notable winners were Bank of America up 2.6% Canadian Tire up 1.8% and Shaw Communications up 1.0%.
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Stocks were mostly down today. But I don't think there is any reason to get too worried about where stocks are headed.
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I have just now updated my reference article on the (inflation adjusted) performance of Stocks, versus Bonds, Versus Gold and Treasury Bills. I consider this article which I first produced in 2001 to be very informative. It seemed particularly import...

Most stocks were down today. Bank of America and to a lesser extent Wells Fargo were up however.
The take over of Viterra at a large premium supports the notion that stocks in general are not over-valued. I continue to expect that 2012 will be a good...

Bank of America fell 2.8% today after initially being up about 2.5%. Apparently the fall was due to rumors it would issue more shares. However, the company has denied this. It's fully diluted share count will however rise in its Q1 report as Buffett'...

The latest edition of the free newsletter has been emailed out. You should have received it.
I am thinking of adding to my position in Berkshire Hathaway on the basis that it is likely having a good quarter. It's book value should gain nicely on its ...

Our article that calculates the fair value of the Tornoto Stock exchange index has been updated. It suggests that the index is about 6% under-valued as a point estimate.
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It was yet another good day in the markets. Bank of America was up another 4.5%. Melcor was thinly traded and was up 6.8%. It's still quite good value at $15.50.
It would be nice to finish out the week without giving any back, but we shall see...
I r...

Our Stock Picks have been firing on all cylinders.
While Toronto was down 1.3% today our stocks did okay. Most notably, Bank of America was up 4.1%, adding to yesterday's gains and Wells Fargo managed to hang onto yesterday's big gains.
After the clo...

It was a VERY big day in the markets. The Dow was up 1.7%, the S&P 500 was up 1.8% and Toronto was up 0.9%.
For once, the market behaved just as I had talked about in terms of the stress tests on banks. The banks passed the tests and announced di...

The Dow was up 0.3% while Toronto was down 0.6%.
It could be a big week for the U.S. bank stocks. The Fed will release results of stress tests on Thursday after the close. If the results are good then we could see Wells Fargo raise its dividend as ea...

Bank of America is added to our list above as a Speculative Strong Buy at $8.05. For a variety of reasons (including that it is tough to value a company with approximately no earnings) this first report is a very preliminary and superficial analysis....

Friday was a good day in the markets and our stock picks are pretty close to their high for the year. I believe my own portfolio is at its high for the year to date. I think there is a good chance that 2012 will be quite a good year in the markets.
S...

Boston Pizza Royalty Income Trust raised its distribution by 6.5%. The units are now at $16.50 to yield 7.1%. Growth is driven largely by increases in same store sales and so we should not expect growth to be more than 2 or 3% longer term. But even a...

A partial recovery today of yesterday's losses...
After the close Canadian Western Bank came out with earnings. The report looked pretty good to me. Underlying growth was quite good. The actual adjusted earnings per share were only up 4% however and ...

Well, as you will have noticed markets were down today (DOW down 1.6%, Toronto down 1.8%). It's been a number of months since we had those kind of days. Remember last August and September? These kind of days are pretty normal really and I don't see a...

U.S. markets were down modestly today but Toronto fell almost 1%.
I hold out high hopes for Wells Fargo. The FED is going to release results of a stress test analysis sometime this month. I suppose that will show that Wells would be hit hard in anoth...

Strange Real Estate Developments
On Friday we had the news that Sears Canada has agreed to vacate the premises of three of its large stores and return them to the landlord in return for $170 million.
This immediately strikes me as odd. Normally a ten...

My article on the valuation of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is updated and suggests that the DOW is probably about 15% under-valued as a best estimate. Of course, that does not mean it is going to jump up 15% any time soon.
Microsoft is updated a...

I noticed today that TD Waterhouse has an issue of Firm Capital for sale.
What caught my interest is that this is a Mortgage Investment Corporation. That means it has some characteristics similar to income trusts. It does not pay income tax if it dis...

We are into bank reporting season in Canada. It was interesting to read in today's paper that analysts were having a very tough time interpreting Bank of Montreal's earnings due to some unusual profit items. The report was described in the Financial ...

Markets were a bit weak today with the Dow down 0.4% and the TSX down 0.8%. Nevertheless we had some winners today notably Toll Brothers up 4.6%, Couche-Tard up 2.0%.
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In accordance with my note yesterday, I did buy some Canadian Western bank today and added to my Shaw Communications.
Some of our stocks did well today, notably Wells Fargo up 2.8%. Meanwhile Canadian Tire was down 1% to $63.27.
I sent an email to Co...

Regarding Melcor. I mentioned under January 31 that I had entered an order to sell what amounted to 18% of my shares if it went to $14.25. By last week I had pretty much forgot taht order was sitting there. Checking my account I notice that sale went...

My popular article on the valuation of the S&P 500 index has been updated. With the surge in stock prices in the past few month that market now looks about fairly valued and no longer looks under-valued.
Today's Financial Post reveals the sad sto...

Markers were moderately positive today. Very soon, I will be updating the report on the valuation of the S&P 500. I expect it will show that the market index still appears to be cheap.
Yesterday I mentioned AIMIA inc. (the former Group Aeroplan, ...

The Canadian market was up 0.6% today but the U.S. markets were down modestly. Some of our key stock picks here and three that I own were whacked down today. Walmart fell for the second day after disappointing earnings. Toll Brothers was down 5%, Can...

U.S. markets finished only moderately higher but the Canadian market did very well today. It's enough to make a person dizzy. But the point is to just buy individual stocks of good companies at good prices and not sweat the volatility too much. It's ...

A Greek debt debt deal was worked of late Monday (early Tuesday in Europe). The next major step is to see if parties actually do show up on March 8 to trade in their former Greek bonds for some 47 cents on the dollar in longer dated Greek bonds. The ...

The week ended nicely for stocks.
I have posted a new version of the free newsletter. However, due to system problems I am unable to email it out. The system problems that have occurred in the past two weeks have been partially but not completely fix...

The Dow and the TSX were both up 123 points today, or 1.0% each. Bank of America was up 4.0%, Microsoft was up 4.1% and Boston Pizza was up another 1.7%. Stantec was up 5.0% today after instituting a dividend for the first time. And FirstService was ...

Today's markets ended to the down-side mostly. No one can say if this is the start of bigger decline. My strategy will be to hold through any decline and probably add to positions. Stocks still look cheap. I may enter some orders to trim positions a ...

GREECE DEFAULT
The financial world is holding its breath waiting for some kind of Greek bond swap deal. The negotiations seem to go on forever.
And what is the point anyhow? It seems like we are trying to avoid an actual default which is considered "...

I mentioned several times recently my doubt that the Greek bond holders could possibly agree to a voluntary reduction in the value of their bonds. I feel there is no way they would ever get the 100% agreement that one would think would be necessary t...

Okay, I am back from my short vacation to Phoenix... Looks like the market took care of itself quite nicely while I was off line.
In particular Canadian Tire came out with good earnings on Thursday and was up quite nicely. I suspect (but certainly ca...

Note that the log in system has been by passed due to a server problem. This should be fixed in a few days. Meanwhile you can log in without a password.
I am off to Phoenix until Sunday and so will resume the comments here late on Sunday.
For the mos...

Not too much happened in the markets today as we await some kind of a deal from Greece. As the week progresses we will get earnings reports to focus on.
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Stocks are off to a roaring start in in 2012. The Dow is up 5.3%, the Toronto Stock index is up a similar 5.2% and the S&P 500 is up 6.9%. Our six Strong Buys are up an average of 7.4%. My own portfolio is up 4.7%. ( I have been taking some profi...

U.S. markets were down modestly today while Canada was up modestly.
RIM was up 2.9% today to $17.17. This is nice gain from its recent low of $12.80 in December. We rated it Strong Buy at $13.44. But I did not expect it to rise so fast in the absence...

A strong day in the markets... notable winners were Wells Fargo up 2.8% and Toll Brothers up 3.0%.
Tomorrow is Ground Hog day. It's interesting how the human mind gravitates towards patterns and sees patterns where none exist and no plausible relatio...

Okay, I'm back from my cruise. Excellent weather sunny and just over 80 degrees Fahrenheit most of the time (day and night). Lots of air conditioning to keep cool when that is wanted. It's a good way to travel. Others to ALL the work. It's affordable...

There will not be any daily posts or updates here for the next ten days or so. I am off on vacation on a Royal Caribbean cruise ship that goes South from San Juan Puerto Rico. We will be stopping at St. Thomas, St. Kitts, Aruba and Curacao on this se...

I sold the 300 shares of RIM from my wife's RRSP today at $17.42. I had bought these on December 22 at $13.79, so there was a profit of $1089 less $20 in Commissions. I have always ran that account on a somewhat lower risk basis and I figured why not...

Wells Fargo came out with earnings before the open today. I think the earnings were quite good and the company is growing. Still the stock did not rise much. I sold 300 shares at $30.40 based on an order I had placed a week or so ago. But I still hol...

I just made a few minor edits to the Dollarama report as I noticed a couple of cells were left incomplete. It's numbers are rather interesting. It's net profit margins are 9.8% which is I think the highest I have seen in a retail operation. More typ...

Dollarama is added to the list above as a Weak Buy at $43.49. This is a very nice business. It has surprisingly strong margins and excellent growth. However, the share price since its IPO in late 2009 at $17.50 has probably surpassed all expectations...

Shaw Communications is updated and rated (higher) Buy at $19.83. Note the 4.9% yield. I will consider buying more Shaw by selling some of my larger positions but I will not likely do that until after my larger holding report their Q1 results.
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Markets were a bit weak today, but the week overall was good. The year has started off well for our stock picks. The six stocks that are rated in the Strong Buy category are up an average of 3.4%, led by RIM at 12%. The 17 stocks in the Buy category ...

Shaw Communications reported earnings before the open today. The market was not excited by the earnings and the shares were down 1.4%. To me, the earnings looked pretty good. There was a loss of 23,000 basic cable customers or 1.0%. But I figure that...

Markets overall were down a little today. However, our stock picks did well.
In particular Toll Brothers was up 2%. My Bank of America (talked about in these daily comments previously, but not rated) was up 3.6%. and Couche-Tard was up 2%. I did not ...

I may trim a few positions...
It was a good day in the markets, Toll brothers was up 4.4%. Bank of America which I hold and have discussed but which is not in the list above was up 5.7%. Here in Canada, Boston Pizza which I bought for yield and not g...

It was not a bad day in the markets as U.S. bank stocks rose. We are now into earnings season. Alcoa reported after the close and its results were apparently better than expected.
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I am taking a look at Dollarama right now. Perhaps I am two years too late, I should have looked at it earlier. As always it is going to take a lot of analysis and work before I add it to the site here. If nothing else it will help me in my understan...

Our comprehensive reference article on Canadian Exchange Traded Funds is updated. This article contains current P/E ratios and dividends yields for a broad selection of ETFs. It also includes Gold, Silver, Oil and Natural Gas ETFs. Most of you may pr...

Markets did not do much today. But some of our stock picks did quite well.
Wells Fargo was up 1.6% and Toll Brothers was up 2.1%. A stock that I hold but don't have a rating on, Bank of America was up a hefty 8.6%. My investment in bank of America wa...

Of interest today, Toll Brothers up 2.9%. So hopefully that bodes well for the U.S. home building industry.
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Markets got off to a very strong start for 2012.
Most everything was up.
I sold what amounted to 9% of my Wells Fargo. I had continued to add to Wells Fargo at lower prices this past Fall. So I sold some today at $28.40. I also placed an order to sel...

The composition of my own portfolio has been updated. It includes mainly Strong Buys and (higher) Buys from the list above but also one two that are Buy rated. My portfolio is by almost any standard over concentrated in a few stocks and I may work to...

Walgreen Company inc., the largest U.S. drugstore chain is updated and rated (higher) Buy at $33.06. It's price has dropped to quite an attractive level due to the loss of about 5% of its customers who are covered bor drugs through a drug plan manage...