September 13, 2020

On Friday, the S&P 500 was up 0.05% and Toronto was up 0.2%.

AutoCanada was up 7.4%. It has made a very strong recovery off its lows. At this point, it might be wise to trim the position for those who are over weight it. It has had a history of causing pain to investors. The current management is probably far far better than previous management. But it is not clear that the recent run-up is totally justified.

We are now moving into the more intense phase of the U.S. election. This seems sure to cause some market volatility. Fareed Zakaria (who is on CNN but is nowhere near as biased against trump as most of CNN) explained that on Election night Trump is likely to (appear to) win but then he is likely to lose when all the mail-in ballots are counted. That’s because republican voters are more likely to vote in person on election day as Trump has urged. Democratic voters are more likely to use the mail-in ballots. This is a very scary scenario since Trump has already said that the mail-in ballots can’t be trusted. You would think this could be solved by finding a way to count most of the mail-in ballots on election night. Or by refusing to release results until enough ballots are counted. Fareed did not even mention those possible solutions – presumably becasue they are not likely to happen.

On top of this, Trump has urged republicans to break the law and vote both by mail and in person. This could get very ugly. 

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