December 11, 2014 Comments

On Thursday, the S&P 500 was up 0.4% and Toronto was also up 0.4%.

Most of the stocks on my list were up somewhat.

A notable decliner was Melcor, down 7.0% to $18.35. This is a thinly traded stock and can be volatile partly for that reason. But apparently the market is afraid that oil prices are going to stay low and that Melcor’s sales of new home building lots are going to decline substantially and/ or that the prices it obtains for lots is going to decline materially. I notice the Melcor REIT units have not declined much in price and were up slightly today. This would seem to suggest that the market has not (at least not yet) pushed down the value of commercial investment properties. 45% of Melcor’s assets are investment properties of which its ownership in its REIT is part. If the investment properties have not declined much in value with the oil price decline then it would appear that the market believes that Melcor’s land inventory has declined in value quite significantly. And perhaps it has or will if indeed oil prices remain low and if that in turn causes a serious decline in housing starts and lot prices.

I continue to view Melcor as a good investment especially for the long term. I am already heavily exposed to it but may add to my position.

A director at Melcor bought 1000 shares a few days ago at just under $20.

Similarly an executive at Canadian Western Bank bought 2000 shares in the past few days at about $31.50.

Perhaps we will see more insider buying which would be a positive signal.

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