October 22, 2019

Well, Albertans stayed up late only to find that the election did no go their way.

But the stock market opened as usual and life goes on. The S&P 500 finished the day down 0.4% and Toronto was down 0.2%.

Shopify was down 6.2%. It will take a very good Q3 growth report if this stock is to regain its high this year.

SNC Lavalin got a boost from the election and rose 14%.

Visa Inc. was down 3.2%.

Toll Brothers was up 2.1%.

CN Rail reported earnings after the close. Revenues were up only 4% but adjusted earnings were share were up 11% which is good. However, they reduced guidance for Q4 and were down slightly in U.S. after-hours trading.

Statistics Canada reported sales at food services and drinking places for August. The gains versus August of 2018 were good at 2.8% for Canada and 3.2% for Ontario. For many months now these reports have looked favorable for the likes of Boston Pizza and yet BP and some other restaurant chains have struggled to maintain let alone increase same-store sales. So, I am not sure that this will translate into an actual gain for BP in same store sales for Q3 but this is a positive report. There was no evidence in this report of the slump reported by the owner of Jack Astor’s last week. Perhaps the evidence will show up in the September report. My best guess is that BP will be able to maintain its distribution. But the possibility of a cut certainly remains.

I drove through Melcor’s Jensen Lake subdivision and shopping area today. This is an attractive new community which already has schools open. Melcor has scaled back its land development this year in response to slower sales but this subdivision is still being developed which is positive. The shopping area is developed by Melcor and then the buildings are transferred to the Melcor REIT after being leased out. There was one new tenant open for business and a gas station is under construction. Basically it looks like this shopping area is prospering. I don’t expect any great news from Melcor or the Melcor REIT with their Q3 results. The REIT faces added vacancy of a large office where the Royal Bank has vacated several floors of its former Edmonton regional office. But the REIT should report fairly stable results and Melcor Developments overall will still be cash flow positive.

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