October 18, 2018

On Thursday, the S&P 500 was down 1.4% and Toronto was down 0.8%.

Most stocks on our list were down. Heineken was up 2.3% to $78.50.

FedEx was down 2.7% to $217. It is well below its high of $274 and looks attractive.

Canadian Western Bank was down 2.4%. BHP Billiton was down 2.9%. Amazon was down 3.3% to $1771. AutoCanada slumped another 4.0%. CRH Medical was down 6.9%.

Linamar was down another 2.1%.

It appears that the market is pushing down almost all stocks. Whether over-valued or under-valued, and whether earnings are growing or not, most stocks have declined recently.

Meanwhile Q3 earnings reports seem to be coming in strong such as America Express with earnings up 22%.

It remains to be seen on a case by case basis whether the Q3 earnings numbers will come in strong and whether the market will react positively to that.

The U.S. economy continues to be quite strong but the markets seem to be starting to price in fears of recession.

Statistics Canada reported Employment Insurance claims for August and the number of people receiving benefits was down 1.6% versus July. Ontario was about unchanged but the number in Alberta was down 3.7%. This is certainly moving in the right direction.

More impressively, the number of people receiving Employment Insurance benefits in Canada was down 11.7% versus one year ago. Versus last year, Ontario claimants were down 10% and Alberta was down 23%!

Toll Brothers announced that its executive chairman, Robert Toll, age 77 would relinquish that role and become a regular Board member while the CEO would become chair (as well as remaining CEO). I welcome this move given that the company appeared to be effectively paying two CEO-level salaries. Also, I don’t like the notion of executive chair roles since it can lead to confusion as to who is in charge.

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