October 17, 2018

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 was about unchanged while Toronto was down 0.3%.

Starbucks was up 2.3%.

Linamar was down 2.15%. I could not resist adding a little to my position again today.

It was disappointing to see Toll Brothers down 2.6%. This was likely due to a report indicating that U.S. housing starts fell 5.3% in September. However that was blamed on Hurricane Florence which had a temporary impact. I believe Toll Brothers has been doing better than the industry average. It has substantially higher price points than the industry average and its customers are not affected as much by the modest increase in mortgage rates. And, unlike some builders, it has access to ample building lots. Nevertheless the market has pushed its stock down along with the rest of the market. It will release its 2018 fiscal earnings in early December which could be a catalyst to push the price up. It should report strong earnings in Q4 but the market will focus on how many contracts it has signed for houses to be completed in 2019 and its outlook for 2019.

Statistics Canada reported on manufacturing for August which declined 0.4% from July but that came after three months of increases. The decline was due to a higher rate of shut-downs in automotive assembly plants.

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