July 16, 2015

On Thursday, the S&P 500 0.8% to 2124. This puts it back very near its high of 2134. Toronto was up 0.5%.

Gainers today included Amazon up 3.1%, Liquor Stores N.A. up 3.4% and Constellation Software up 2.1%.

AutoCanada declined 2.3%.

It seems that the nonsense about Greece is over with for now and the market is turning its attention the Q2 earnings reports.

Canadian Exports Have not benefited from the lower dollar 

The lower Canadian dollar should be helping exports. If the exported good is left at the same price in Canadian dollars then it becomes far cheaper for American to buy it in terms of U.S. dollars and sales should rise. If the exported good is priced in U.S. dollars then the volume should be unaffected but the profit for the Canadian firm improves.

Statistics Canada reported that for May 2015: Export volumes decreased 2.5% and prices increased 1.9% (as compared to April 2015). The traded deficit widened.

On the face of it this means the lower Canadian dollar is not helping.

Possible explanations include:

For many exports the volume and Canadian dollar price may have been contractually set (or hedged) many months ago when the Canadian dollar was higher.

Canadian exporters may not have raised their prices to reflect their improved competitive position versus America competitors.

In addition, the trade deficit is affected by many other factors including most notably lower U.S. dollar prices for oil and other commodities. The value of the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. is only one of many factors.

With the continued drop in the Canadian dollar, I suspect we will see the benefit show up in higher export dollars and volumes in the coming months.

 

 

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