July 15,2019

On Monday, the S&P 500 was about unchanged and Toronto as up 0.1%

The Melcor REIT announced / confirmed that its distribution will remain unchanged for the next three months and announced that it will release Q2 earnings on July 30th.

Regarding Melcor Developments I wondered if probable weak Q2 lot sales could even lead to a loss being reported in Q2. That is possible given IFRS mark-to-market accounting for building values. On the other hand if lot sales are down then the cost of lots sold will also be down. The general and admin costs of the property development division are not much over $2 million per quarter. Overall, there is probably little reason to think that Melcor will not once again post positive earnings in Q2 (particularly after adjusting for certain non-cash valuation items including building market value changes and changes related tot he market value of the minority interest in the REIT). They are a very conservative company and when earnings are down they have at times lowered the dividend. But my understanding is that they are more committed to a stable and sustainable dividend at this point. Cash flows should continue to be relatively strong as they collect for lot sales made previously (their home builders typically pay for lots when they sell and deliver a home) and as they curtail spending on new developments.

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