January 7, 2020

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 was down 0.3% while Toronto was up 0.4%.

Canadian Tire was up 1.7% and Couche-Tard was up 1.6%.

Toll Brothers was up 1.7%.

Constellation Software was up 3.0%.

CRH Medical was down 3.3% giving back some of its recent gains.

After the close, Linamar basically warned that its Q4 was ugly as it updated conditions in its various markets. The market (industry volume) for its access products (includes scissor lifts and booms) was down 20 to 30% which is quite ugly. The automotive market continued to decline but the decline versus its most recent forecast seems fairly modest – but the GM strike impact was an added significant headwind in Q4. In its agricultural products category markets were about flat versus 2018 which is an improvement from recent sharp declines. Linamar is not forecasting any big rebound in this sector even as farmers receive cash to compensate for trade wars. Poor crop conditions exacerbated the trade problems.

On December 16 I had updated Linamar as only a Speculative (lower) Buy and I reduced my holding somewhat and noted that I worried that Q4 would be quite weak. Given the expected weakness in Q4, it was surprising that Linamar had rebounded quite a bit lately. This latest negative update should not really be a big surprise to the market. But perhaps the lack of the usual comments about optimism for the future (which were absent in the presentation) will be viewed quite negatively. Overall, I would expect a noticeable in Linamar’s price on Wednesday.

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