On Friday markets were strong. The S&P 500 was up 0.9% and Toronto was up 0.8%.
Oil and gas stocks were mostly up. XEG, the big Canadian oil and gas ETF was up 4.5%.
Trade related stocks mostly rose. CN Rail was up 2.1%. FedEx was up 2.2%, Linamar was up 2.25%.
Couche-Tard was up 2.05%.
On Friday, Statistics Canada released a very disappointing jobs survey. They estimate that 71,000 jobs were lost in November on a seasonally adjusted basis. The losses occurred in Quebec, Alberta and B.C. while the other provinces were little changed.
I have consistently said that we should not read too much into any one month’s labour force survey. The survey has basically exhibited what can fairly be described as frequent wild swings. It is a statistical survey and is subject to significant statistical error as well as to the process of seasonal adjustment that can never be perfect.
Nevertheless, this survey is a negative indicator for Quebec, Alberta and B.C. I was disappointed to see the negative news for Alberta at a time when the oil egress situation is improving. The Alberta government has already “released” some workers who were not in “permanent” positions and more job reductions are rumored. Hopefully, other aspects of the economy are improving so that the unemployment rate in Alberta does not rise.
This week, the U.S. market will likely continue to react to positive or negative developments on the trade files.
I am looking forward to the report from Toll Brothers and hoping that they can beat analyst expectations although it is expected that their earnings per share will be lower than 2018’s Q4. What may be more important is their outlook. Also their contracted home sales numbers are highly important. Those numbers do not affect earnings until the houses are built and delivered but they affect the stock price immediately.
Boston Pizza Royalties will likely announce its next distribution. Hopefully unchanged but potentially a cut.