September 2, 2013 Comments

Melcor is updated and rated (lower) Strong Buy at $19.36.

Toll Brothers is updated and rated Speculative Buy at $30.61. It’s a good company but the share price is already pricing in a very large earnings recovery. Given the need for earnings to rise rapidly to justify the share price, it is a speculative pick. I originally added it to the site in June 2011 at $21.03 as a way to participate in the U.S. housing recovery. I have quite a large exposure to this stock, it is my third largest position. I have continued to buy as the price fell recently. Possibly I am getting too emotionally attached to this stock.

Recently longer-term interest rates have risen while short term interest rates have remained near zero. In isolation, this bodes well for banks since get higher interest rates on loans and bond investments while continuing to pay very little on deposits. Perhaps higher interest rates will slow mortgage sales. But overall the outlook for U.S. banks seems strong. Our picks there are Wells Fargo and Bank of America. I have not looked at any other U.S. banks and therefore have no opinion on any others.

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