November 30, 2014 Comments

Canadian National Railway Company (CNR or CN or CNI) is updated and rated Weak Buy / Hold at CAN $81.23 and U.S. $71.05. I have now been “tracking” CN for 15 years. Its share price is up a staggering 905% in that time or 17% per year on average. I have not tracked its ROE all the way back but in the last five years the ROE has been above 20%. That explains much of the earnings and share price growth. I have long described CN as having to some extent monopolistic characteristics. The stock is up 34% this year to date . That’s a HUGE gain for such a large company. Part of the recent gain is explained by the lower Canadian dollar because its U.S. earnings are worth more as the Canadian dollar sinks. It has also see huge growth in hauling crude oil in the past few years and it had a bumper crop of grain to haul in 2014. I like it very much as a company. But as a stock it seems somewhat expensive and I am not a buyer at this price.

Regarding Liquor Stores N.A. I lost money on that company and, more importantly, some others no doubt invested based on our analysis (albeit at their own risk) and lost money. We have it rated as a Sell at $13.31 and it is currently at $14.85. So, I may be somewhat biased against it. (We all have our biases whether we admit it or not). In any case I was in one of their stores yesterday. (I have to admit they have convenient locations, which is the reason I was there for a small purchase). In other news I spoke to someone recently who had worked at one of their large new Wine and Beyond stores. This person told me that sales were slow in November and that some staff shifts had been cut back. I imagine all liquor stores will do pretty well in December. But the problem in Alberta is there seems to FAR to many stores.

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