May 2, 2012 Comments

The Canadian market was down 0.8% today at 12,230. This market has not done well at all after reaching levels over 14,000 in early 2011. The trailing TSX P/E ratio is 15.7 which suggests that the index is perhaps fairly valued at this time.

The U.S. market was down much of today but ended up down only modestly.

Constellation Software reported Q1 earnings after the close that seems reasonably good but probably no better than expected.

Visa reported earnings growth after the close of 30%causing me to ask myself why I don’t own this company which I have often said is basically an unregulated monopoly (from the point of view of merchants). I had sold my shares sometime last year just to raise some cash at a time when markets seemed especially vulnerable (remember the debt ceiling crisis last August?) Well I probably put that cash mostly to good use in the interim but nevertheless wish I had ben able to hold the Visa.

In general we continue to see good earnings reports but the market also worries about the economy and Europe and so the direction of the market is uncertain (but then again, when was it ever certain except in rose-colored memory?)

Given the uncertainty I am somewhat torn between trimming some positions, especially if they rise further and just staying put or even throwing into equities what little remaining cash is in my accounts.

Toll brothers was up 1.6% today and at one point was up over 3%. It has done very well and may continue to do well as new house building recovers in the U.S. However it does look expensive at this point.


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