April 4, 2020

On Friday, the S&P 500 ended the day down 1.5% and Toronto was down 1.2%.

Canadian Tire announced that its Canadian Tire stores in Ontario will be closed after today to in-store shopping by delivery and curb-side pickup will continue.

So what is next? The economic shut down in Canada is deepening and it is definitely deepening in the U.S. where some States have been very slow to act. News of many more cases and deaths in the U.S. is likely to add to fears this week.

On the other hand there may be positive news in terms of treatments.

And this site shows that a number of countries including Spain, Italy and certainly South Korea and also arguably Canada are having success in flattening the curve.  But not so far the U.S. Even when the curve flattens it is likely to take at least 6 to 8 weeks before new cases would be low enough to consider starting to reopen the economy.

With that, it is hard to say where the market will head. It may focus on the fear or it may believe there is light a the end of the tunnel. It’s very important for the U.S. and particularly New York to succeed in keeping the cases that require hospitalizations at a level that does not over whelm their system.

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