April 28, 2020

On Tuesday the Toronto stock Exchange index was up 1.1% while the S&P 500 was down 0.5%.

Markets continue to anticipate the opening up of the economy.

For example, the latest forecast of S&P 500 earnings for 2020 indicates a decline of 13% for 2020 versus 2019 with most of the decline occurring in this Q2. But the forecast then calls for 2021 to rebound strongly to 9% higher than the 2019 level. That seems optimistic. It may be that this forecast has simply not been updated becasue it is so difficult to forecast the longer term impacts of the shut down.

Things are truly bad in the energy sector. Vermilion Energy trades at $5.74 per share. After the close it reported a Q1 loss of $8.42 per share due to writing off asset values. It is truly ugly to see a company report a per share loss that is greater than its share price.

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