February 8, 2016

Monday was a negative day in the markets with the S&P 500 down 1.4% and Toronto down 1.8%.

Among the bigger decliners were Element Financial down 6.2%, Couche-Tard down 6.0%, Bank of America down 5.3%, Visa down 5.3% and Dollarama down 3.8%.

I am surprised to see Toll Brothers down at $25.13. This puts the price back to where it was four years ago when its earnings were negative as it was emerging from the housing crash in the U.S. I added Toll Brothers to this site in 2011 at $21.03 as a way to benefit from the recovery in the U.S. home building industry. Since then Toll’s earnings have gone from negative figures to positive. Over most of that period Toll Brothers was improving but its P/E ratio was still relatively high. Now, Toll Brothers is starting to look very much like a value stock with a trailing P/E of 12.8 and a price to book value of 1.1. And it appears that its profits will be sharply higher in 2016 based on homes it already contracted to sell in 2015.