July 12, 2012 Comments

The Dow was down 0.25% today and the S&P 500 was down 0.50% and Toronto was down 1.0%

I probably don’t need to say this, but as a reminder I have never said that I could predict the direction of the market. What I can do is analyses whether the market as a whole seems to be reasonably valued. You can check that valuation analysis and the assumptions used and see the results based on other assumptions in my articles about market value for the S&P, the Dow and Toronto

What I also do is analyze whether the stocks in the table above seemed to be good value as at the dates indicated in the table and analysis.

I view market declines as being simply the nature of investing. I think investing over the years will be rewarding. But yes, we will certainly have our share declines in individual stocks and in the overall markets. Anyone who can’t deal with that should not be investing in stocks, or should limit their exposure to stocks.

The fact is that over 99% (maybe even 100%) of the subscribers to this page seem to be very mature and don’t expect to escape declines from time to time. Nevertheless I think it is good to remind people once in a while that as investors we do risk at least temporary declines.

Very few of our stock picks were up today. Toll Brothers however rose 2.7%

Warren Buffet was on CNBC for a long interview this morning. I saw some reports indicating he was pessimistic. I certainty did not detect any pessimism when I watched the interview. He said most of his companies were growing but at a very slow rate, a little slower than recent growth. His housing related businesses were starting to show noticeable growth but from a low base. His sources indicated that Europe which had still been growing was now really slowing down. He was very optimistic about the future of America.

He also said that the U.S. debt problems are very large but that the solution is very clear (raise taxes and cut spending) but congress has failed to act.

As of just after midnight the futures are up because apparently Chinese GDP numbers were good.

Friday morning Wells Fargo will report earnings before the open. Also J.P. Morgan.

It should be yet another interesting day to close out the week.