April 17, 2016

On Sunday, oil fell 7.4% to $38.42 as OPEC talks of a production freeze went nowhere. Reportedly, Saudi Arabia wanted Iran to freeze at January levels. That seems like a nonsense request. Iran quite clearly planned to ramp up production after its sanctions were lifted. It’s not clear what Saudi Arabia is up to but it seems clear they are being less than honest, or at least less than realistic.

In any case, any company or investor or government (like Alberta) that has gotten itself into a place where it must pray for OPEC to curtail production and manipulate oil prices has really gotten themselves into a jam. An OPEC price-fixing collusion may never happen. Nor should it. I have no idea where oil prices are headed. Higher prices would benefit Melcor and Canadian Western Bank. But if it does not happen, I suspect those companies will still survive and grow over the years.